MLS week 6

rolltide · Apr 21, 2011

10-8-1 +4.31 (staked 68.27, +6.3%)

Thursday night match

DC United vs RBNY
- more of an action-junkie pick here as I think, more or less, lines today and tomorrow are solid so waiting for the weekend to bust out some real money. This is more a play on what has become a miserable trend which is awful games on ESPN for the past 2 years. Too many matches end 1-0 (this year both Seattle/LA and RBNY/PHI though POR/CHI was a goalfest for those up that late) and are just boring possession games which is probably attributed to not having a full week's prep time. Anyway, tonight we've got eastern match of DC vs RBNY and there are plenty of stats to back the thought of few goals. First, RBNY are #1 in league allowing just 42 shots in 5 games...that's not Shots on goal, that's shots attempted! Really is a remarkable number and DC not too far behind with 54 shots allowed in 5 games. DC's offense is 3rd worst in MLS posting 10 shots per game though they lead MLS in 2nd half goals. The Red Bulls are dead last in away goals scoring, well, zero in 2 games while allowing 1 and 3 straight meetings have gone u2.5 producing a total of 4 goals. The Red Bulls have assembled the East's best team without question and they'll get chances against DC's fragile back 4 so taking the under is certainly risky as you know they'll have to blow a couple massive opportunities but DC knows they can't run-and-gun with RBNY so will try to slow things down in a possession game. Just the most minimum of bets so either skip or follow with a unit,

DC/RBNY under 2.5 goals 1u -150

rolltide · Apr 22, 2011

NY 4-0 -1.5u ... 5 shots on goal vs 1 and 4 of those 6 went into the net

LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
- LA back home off a 3 game road trip (DDW) where they outplayed all 3 eastern opponents without Landon Donovan and, in the Chicago game, won without their entire midfield. Landon is back as are Beckham, Juninho, Kirovski but starting CFB, Leonardo, has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury. He's a great young defender but all of his potential replacements (Franklin, Delagarza, Berhalter) have starting in central defense for LA at some point and Franklin was even MLS rookie of the year at CFB in 2008. Berhalter for sure isn't ready this week but Franklin or Delagarza will be adequte replacements for Leonardo. The Timbers the road after holding on for 3-2 win over Dallas in another game where they completely folded in the 2nd half and needed a crossbar to secure the 3 points late in the match. This team is sucking wind at the end of games and they've already allowed 5 goals in the final 30' of matches this year, 4 in the past 2 matches. LA play a very different style at home than on the road. Their away matches are methodical, possession-oriented, while at home they open it up and try to entertain the locals. This has resulted in some really disastrous losses but it normally takes a team like RBNY, Dallas, or Colorado (3 home losses since August) to take advantage. Portland have an excellent striking partnership but they are very poor in possession so I expect LA will have the ball 2/3 of the time in this one, mostly in the Portland zone, and the Timbers defense will crumble. LA have allowed just 63 shots in 7 matches (9 per game) while the Timbers allowed about that same number in just 5. Defensively they've been exceptional in the past 4 games allowing 2 goals (both in final minute of match) and just 10 shots on goal. I'm expecting a match like Portland had in Colorado where they had no real chance after allowing a few 1H goals and lost easily. Portland sitting in 4th right now in the west but have matches at LA, home vs RSL, and at Seattle where it's likely they'll go 0-0-3

LA Galaxy -1 6u +104

rolltide · Apr 23, 2011

in 2.5 hours

Houston Dynamo vs Chicago Fire
- Thought for 2 days about this bet as I like it a lot but hate betting on Chicago at home. Houston won their two home games now take to the road where they've miraculous pulled two draws despite being outshot 45-13 and outcornered 19-4 by RBNY and Seattle. Goalie Tally Hall has been tremendous this year but they allow a ton of possession and chances away from home and can't keep playing that way to avoid defeat. Chicago are not at the level or either RBNY or Seattle and played b2b poor matches, allowing 4 goals to expansion Portland then 2-1 defeat to LA missing Kirovski, LD, Becks, and Juninho. They are notoriously bad at home so backing them in Chicago can only be done with smaller stakes but I don't think Houston are much better than the Fire and have some important missings. The Dynamo's depth will be tested Saturday and it's their depth I questioned in my preseason overview. Starting MF's Lovel Palmer and Danny Cruz are out, captain & striker Ching is still banged up, and defenders Taylor and Hainault are questionable and certainly not 100% if they do play. The Fire are winless in 3 so a bit desperate and word is they will rotate some players to shake things up. They were a real wildcard team for me coming into the season though the one area I thought would be weak, strikers, has been a positive as the Uruguayans are playing well. Marco Pappa is a top 15 player in this league, very dangerous MF, but the defense is not playing well at all despite some decent talent. Statistically the Fire are one of the top offenses in the league; 5th in goals, 4th in assist, 8th in shots and SOG, 4th in producing corners and given the way Houston have allowed chances on the road you have to think the Fire can score. The big thing for them is defending as they've allowed 11 goals already this year but have given up 10 less shots than Houston in the same amount of games. Tough to call a match a must win game in April but sitting at 1-1-3 with a road trip to the champs, Colorado, up next and 3 of next 4 on the road I believe the Fire will give a great effort. Hopefully the defense doesn't get caught with stupid mistakes like vs LA and they edge this 2-1

Chicago 2u +125